The monsoon has turned slightly indifferent after dumping surplus rain of 41 per cent until June 20 over most parts of Central and North-West India and the South Peninsula. A deficient run continues over the North-East, but indications are that the rains may escalate here during the next few days.
A scale-up in rains over North-East India and the eastern coast is known to happen when the monsoon loses its sting over parts of the rest of the country, which is only a passing phase since the monsoon cannot hope to retain the same intensity through the first month after onset over the Kerala coast.
Monsoon squeezes way into Gujarat, Rajasthan, West UP
Heavy rain for North-East
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday that strengthening moist south-westerly winds from the Bay of Bengal will trigger fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall over Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Mizoram, West Bengal and Sikkim during the next five days.
A cyclonic circulation over North-West Bihar and adjoining East Uttar Pradesh (remnant of an erstwhile low-pressure area) and a diagonal trough from North-West Rajasthan to North-East Bay of Bengal will bring fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall over Bihar on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Monsoon is here, but hasn’t set in people’s mind
May be delayed over Delhi
Prevailing dry north-westerly winds from across the border continue to prevent the monsoon from entering the as-yet uncovered areas of Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab. The normal date of onset over Delhi is at least 10 days away on June 30.
But numerical weather predictions on Monday did not indicate the monsoon easterlies from the Bay making any headway past the wall of resistance offered by the north-westerlies even by June 30. In the normal course, the monsoon must cover the final outpost of West Rajasthan by the first week of July.
No cause for major worry
Latest international global forecasts do not indicate any cause for major worry since the monsoon would come back to its own during the rest of the three months (July, August and September) and deliver normal to above-normal rainfall except over the South Peninsula where it is expected to be just normal.
The Busan, South Korea-based Asia-Pacific Climate Centre confirmed this in its forecast update issued on Monday. Earlier, the Application Laboratory of the Jamstec, the Japanese national forecaster, had come out with a similar forecast while hinting at a deficit along India’s West Coast and adjoining Sri Lanka.
Rainfall trend for July
The Busan centre said that July rainfall would be mostly above-normal for North-West, West and Central India (including Gujarat); heavy over the Mumbai coast and the rest of coastal Maharashtra; and normal over the East Coast and the South Peninsula (Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh).
August may mimic the same pattern but with a slight deficit over Odisha and adjoining Coastal Andhra Pradesh as well as the extreme southern tip of the peninsula. September is expected to be a ‘fuller month’ with above-normal rainfall predicted for the country except Coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Kerala where it would be normal. No rain deficit is forecast over any part of the country.